NORTHWEST FIRES

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 9 fire for 35 acres
Oregon: 2 fires for 1 acre
Washington: 7 fires for 34 acres

NEW LARGE FIRES
None

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
A Pacific cold front moved onshore late last night and at daybreak this morning the active portion of the front was in central Washington. Showers and wet thunderstorms are accompanying the front. By early afternoon the front should be out of the region heading eastward. Next weather system still on tap for Saturday lasting through the weekend. This system is expected to give a pretty decent wetting rain region-wide. A warming and drying trend still expected for next week as high pressure builds back into the Pacific northwest.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
Lightning in eastern Washington will result in some elevated IA activity today but the storms are wet so pose little problem for new large fires. A stronger weather system will bring a wetting rain raising fuel moistures region-wide as dryngess levels move into the “green”. overall the large fire potential is expected to be Low region-wise for the next 7 days especially after today.

INITIAL ATTACK
Oregon: 5 fires for 1 acre burned
Washington: 4 fires for 0 acres burned

NEW LARGE FIRES

Washington:

Milepost 281 Fire
5 miles south of Omak; 1,500 acres, 0% contained. Cause of the fire is under investigation. The fire is burning in grass, sage and scattered timber. The fire is on the Colville Agency.  A Type 2 IMT (IC Barnett) has been ordered.

ONGOING INCIDENTS
See fire intel

WEATHER WATCHES and WARNINGS
The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Fire Weather Watch which is in effect from late tonight through Thursday morning for Kittitas, Yakima, Benton and Klickitat Counties.
A fast moving upper level system will track across Washington tonight and Thursday morning and will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the east slopes of the central Washington Cascades and in the northern portion of the Lower Columbia Basin.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop only for a few hours but will produce enough lightning to create significant fire weather concerns in this area. In addition, winds will increase Thursday behind the system that could lead to rapid fire spread.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance will move rapidly through the region tonight and Thursday morning. This will aid in formation of showers in western Washington as well as scattered thunderstorms later today and tonight east of the Cascades. Also, expect increasing westerly winds across eastern OR/WA this evening lasting through the night in some areas. The thermal trough will be prominent in eastern Washington this afternoon before shifting eastward by Thursday. Another Pacific cold front is expected on Saturday that should result in some rain over the weekend.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
Even though fuel dryness is not overly critical the burn environment will be elevated in Northeast and Eastern Washington today due to instability with the thermal trough. This may affect the Mile Post 281 fire with enhanced burning prompting our issuance of a high risk condition for Okanogan/Ferry County area. In addition expect strong west winds to pick up across eastern OR/WA tonight as upper level disturbance moves through.

Lightning will elevate IA activity moderately east of the Cascades today, as well. However, the limited amount of lightning combined with only moderately dry fuels is not expected to cause critical conditions as the large fire probability remains low (generally 5-15%).

This weekend’s wetter weather system is expected to drop all areas fuels into very moist levels.

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 14 fires for 338 acres
Oregon: 7 fires for 335 acres
Washington: 7 fires for 3 acres
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1

NEW LARGE FIRES

Microwave Fire (OR-954S-0001)
The wildfire is located on state-protected lands approximately 7 miles E of Hood River, OR. Size is estimated at 600+ acres in grass, brush, hardwoods and timber. Some residents have been evacuated, there are threats to the town of Mosier, OR. An Oregon Department of Forestry Type 2 Incident Management Team (Hirsch) has been committed.

ONGOING INCIDENTS

WASHINGTON:

Oden Road Fire (WA-NES-001262)
Fire is located 2 miles N of Malott, WA. A Type 3 Incident Management Team is committed. Primary fuels are timber, grass, and sage. The fire has burned 9,607 acres (No change) and is 90% contained.Minimal fire behavior as mop up continues. Containment is expected today, August 28.

Brush Creek Fire (WA-NCP-203)
The contain/confine fire is burning 14 miles NW of Newhalem, WA in timber. Size is 110 acres with no containment. Spotting and torching have been observed as dry conditions and an unstable atmosphere contribute to fire growth.

OREGON:

Canal Creek (OR-WIF-111)
The wildfire is located 8 miles SW of Detroit, OR, in heavy dead and down fuels. Size is 128 acres with 5%containment. Extreme fire behavior observed on 8/27 resulted in the fire doubling in size. A Type 3 IMT (Vetter IC) is committed.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front just off the southern Oregon coast this morning will be swinging inland along with an upper level disturbance this evening. The upper level “low” will linger over the region through the weekend. This scenario will supply an increased onshore flow with windy conditions in central OR/WA this evening. The thermal trough currently over the Cascades early this morning will rapidly move eastward establishing itself over eastern OR/WA this afternoon. High pressure with warming and drying is expected early next week but southerly flow aloft will continue the threat of thunderstorm activity

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL Increased IA activity expected today lasting through much of the weekend due to lightning. Most of the lightning should be fairly wet, however E4 and E1 both indicate an elevated threat of large fires today due to possibly drier type storms in those areas. The overall burn conditions will be particularly high in eastern Washington and north central and NE Oregon today due to a dry and unstable airmass associated with the thermal trough Compounding problems will be an increase in wind in central OR/WA by this evening as a marine push results in strong, gusty west winds through the Col Gorge and down east slopes of the Washington and north Oregon Cascades. Current fires in those areas will likely be affected by these conditions.

For some great discussions, check out the www.wildlandfire.com message boards!  Here’s the daily update, which reports an expectation of Initial Attack Increase:

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 16 fires for 44 acres
Oregon: 4 fires for 35 acres
Washington: 12 fires for 9 acres
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1

NEW LARGE FIRES
None

ONGOING INCIDENTS

Oden Road Fire (WA-NES-001262)
The fire is located 2 miles N of Malott, WA. A Type 2 Incident Management Team (IC Johnson) is committed. Primary fuels are timber, grass, and sage. The fire has burned 9,607 acres (-651) and is 90% contained. Level 2 Evacuation has been lifted. Level 1 Evacuation is in effect for portions of the Chilliwist Community. Evaluation on going to lift this order. Today crews will mop-up all around the perimeter. Containment is expected Friday, August 28.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure ridge aligned to our east with southerly flow aloft over the region. This will ultimately bring subtropical moisture into the northwest as an offshore disturbance moves in on Friday. Rather than moving on eastward this disturbance is expected to hang around through the weekend. This scenario will result in showers and lightning beginning Friday over much of the region with showers and wet thunderstorms continuing through the weekend east of the Cascades. My current feeling is that thunderstorms west of the Cascade and central Oregon should be fairly wet but any thunderstorms that may occur Friday in E1 and E4 may be drier before turning wet over the weekend.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
Lightning will increase IA activity on Friday over much of the region continuing into the weekend east of the Cascades. Most of the storms are expected to be rather wet with a low probability for large fires.   However the leading edge of Friday’s lightning potential in E4 and E1 will carry a 30-40% chance for large fires as storms in those areas may start out drier before turning wet on the weekend

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 8
Oregon: 2 fires for 0 acres
Washington: 6 fires for 9 acres

NEW LARGE FIRES
None

ONGOING INCIDENTS

Oden Road Fire (WA-NES-001262)
Fire is located 2 miles N of Malott, WA. Primary fuels are timber, grass, and sage. The fire has burned 10,258 acres (+1,811) and is 80% contained. Level 2 Evacuation has been lifted. Level 1 Evacuation is in effect for portions of the Chilliwist Community. Evaluation on going to lift this order. Last portion of line constructed and burned out during shift. A Type 2 Incident Management Team (IC Johnson) is committed

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
http://www.nwccweb.us/predict/forecast.asp
Warm, dry weather will prevail across the Pacific Northwest today and Thursday as an upper level ridge strengthens over the area. A cut off upper level low containing tropical moisture will swing inland into Western Washington Friday afternoon then continue slowly to the ESE through the weekend. The upper low will exit NE Oregon and track into Idaho Sunday night. Due to the moisture and instability contained in this system, lightning will be abundant but so will rainfall.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
http://www.nwccweb.us/content/products/fwx/guidance/dl.pdf
The combination of dry fuels and increasing instability will elevate the burn environment in C1 into the high risk category for Thursday. As the upper low moves inland Friday and crosses the weekend it will bring showers and thunderstorms with it. While this will increase initial attack activity…rainfall accompanying the storms will keep the threat of new large fires below the high risk category. For Friday in C1, E1 and C2 the probability of getting a new large fires is roughly 15% and around 10% for E2, but falls rapidly as the weekend progresses.

Here’s the daily update… don’t forget you can get fire weather and large fire alerts sent to your cell phone!  It’s easy:  Register a username at www.twitter.com, go to www.twitter.com/northwestfires, select ‘follow us’, and activate your mobile device for alerts.  As ALWAYS, if you have any comments, suggestions, questions or if you would like to write a blog to be posted here send us an email! northwestfires@gmail.com

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 10
Oregon: 2 fires for 0 acres
Washington: 8 fires for 9 acres

NEW LARGE FIRES
None

WEATHER SYNOSIS
A weak frontal system has been bringing patchy light rain to Western Washington and northwest Oregon this morning. Once the system crosses the Cascades the impacts will shift to breezy west winds along the east slopes and in the Columbia River Basin this afternoon and evening. The upper level ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen and build north across the Pacific Northwest into western Canada Wednesday and Thursday bringing a significant warming and drying trend as well as increasing instability. A small upper level trough moves inland Friday or Friday night for a slight chance of thunderstorms and brief dip in the temperatures before the ridge aloft rebounds for the weekend.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
While fuels are drying gradually, the lack of mass ignition triggers (i.e. not much lightning in the forecast for the next 7 days) will keep the probability of new large fires low. Instability in C1 where there are ongoing fires and the fuel dryness level is in the ‘brown’ will elevate the burning environment into the high risk category on Thursday.

ONGOING INCIDENTS

Washington:

Oden Road Fire (WA-NES-001262)
Fire is located 2 miles N of malott, WA. Primary fuels are timber, grass, and sage. The fire has burned 10,258 acres (+1,811) and is 70% contained. SR 20 has been reopened. Successful burnout operations on 8/24 have secured the NW portion of the fire. A Type 2 Incident Management Team (IC Johnson) is committed.

Dry Creek Complex (WA-MCR-000048)
The fire is contained at 48,902 acres. The fire has transitioned to a Type 3 incident at 0600.

Sable Fire (WA-OWF-782)
This resource benefit fire is located 35 miles NW of Chelan, WA. There have been some smoke impacts to the Stehekin area but the fire remains well within its management area.

The author of NWFires has returned after a 2 day deployment at the Dead Canyon Fire. Apologies for the lack of updates!  In a 24 hour period there were a reported NINE state mobilization fires in Washington State. Here is today’s daily update:

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 5
Oregon: 1 fire for 0 acres
Washington: 4 fires for 2 acres
New large fires: 1
Uncontained large fires: 6
Type 2 IMTs committed: 2

NEW LARGE FIRES

Sable Fire (WA-OWF-782)
This resource benefit fire, located 35 miles NW of Chelan, WA, has been burning for some time and has recently grown to 150 acres due to instability and gusty winds. There have been some smoke impacts to the Stehekin area. The fire remains well within its management area.

See below for ongoing incidents

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
A transient ridge of high pressure aloft will bring a general warming and drying trend to the area today as well as significantly lighter winds to the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and Columbia River Basin. A very weak front will approach the coast tonight then shift inland on Tuesday. Precipitation accompanying this system will be rather light and confined to Western Washington. The broader impacts for Tuesday will be increased onshore flow, cooler temperatures and breezy west winds.

Warmer and drier weather will return Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level ridge strengthens over Idaho and Montana. Instability will increase on Thursday as the winds aloft turn southerly. Given the very dry air mass in place, thunderstorms look unlikely with increasing Haines Indices a more significant concern The next upper level trough will move inland late Thursday night and Friday once again bringing breezy west
and a brief cool down through increased onshore flow.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms are also possible Friday primarily in Washinton and the NE corner of Oregon.  Warmer and drier conditions will return for the weekend as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
The periodic but brief upper level troughs are slowing the drying trend of the fuels and will keep fuel conditions near status quo for much of the week. Increasing instability on Thursday will be a concern for all ongoing fires, however C1 is the only PSA anticipated to be in the ‘brown’ and therefore the only one to reach the high risk threshold for burning environment. Instability will likely be a concern again for the weekend with a
thermal trough building beneath the strong ridge of high pressure

ONGOING INCIDENTS

Washington:

Oden Road Fire (WA-NES-001262)
Fire is burning in Okanogan County near the Methow Valley. Primary fuels are timber, grass, and sage. The fire has burned approximately 8,447 acres and is 30% contained. SR 20 remains closed to all except residents of the area. Structure protection and mopup around residences continue. AWashington Type 2 Incident Management Team ( Johnson) is in place at this time.

Dry Creek Complex (WA-MCR-000048)
Fire is burning near the intersection of HWY 240 and HWY 24 west of the Hanford Site in Washington. Primary fuels are grass and brush. The fire has consumed approximately 40,000 acres and is 80% contained. State mobilization resources are being demobed. A Washington Type 2 Incident Management Team (La Fave) is in place at this time.

Dead Canyon Fire (WA-WFS-00005)
13 miles south of Mabton, WA. The fire is being demobilized.

Buffalo Lake Fire (WA-COA-0254)
This fire is burning 3 miles SE of the Colville Agency in grass and shrubs. The fire is contained at 330 acres.

Grant County Complex
This complex of fires has been demobilized.

NOTE: The author of this blog is being deployed to the Grant County Complex in Washington State.  For further updates in the coming days, check local media and/or refer to the NWFIRES Intel page (www.nwfires.com/fire-intel) for further resources regarding regional fire intelligence.  Stay Safe!

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 16
Oregon: 7 fires for 0 acres
Washington: 9 fires for 1954 acres

NEW LARGE FIRES

Grant County Complex (WA-WFS-003)
3 fires at this time in the Grant County Area: http://wildlandfire.com/hotlist/showthread.php?t=10697

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
* The NWS in Pendleton has issued a RED FLAG WARNING in effect until 10 PM PDT FRIDAY for wind and low humidity in (western Washington) zone 631.

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for wind and low humidity in zone (Central Washington) 675.

A substantial “marine push” last night has brought plenty of marine cloudiness into western Washington and nw Oregon with modified marine air and gusty west winds spilling into eastern Washington and north central Oregon as well. We will now remain under the influence of a mostly dry southwesterly flow aloft into next week. This will keep onshore flow over the region with seasonably mild temperatures and humidities. Isolated lightning is possible today and Saturday in E5. More substantial showers and wet thunderstorms appear likely by mid next week as a weak Pacific cold front and upper level disturbance moves into the region at that time.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
The potential for new large fires should remain relatively low through the next 7 days as most PSA fuel conditions will be in the ‘green’ or “yellow” with no significant ignition triggers expected. The next potential for elevated IA activity may be about next Wednesay or Thursday due to lightning but most of that activity should be fairly wet and for now appears to pose only a minimal large fire threat.

INITIAL ATTACK
New fires: 2
Oregon: 1 fires for 0 acres
Washington: 1 fires for 5 acres

WEATHER SYNOPSIS
*The NWS in Spokane has issued a RED FLAG WARNING in effect from 1300 to 2200 today.

* The NWS in Pendleton has issued a FIRE WEATHER WATCH in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for wind and low humidity in the eastern Columbia River Gorge in zone 609.

* They have also issued a FIRE WEATHER WATCH in effect fromFriday morning through Friday evening for wind and low humidity in south central Washington and NE Oregon (zones 631 and 675).
Sharp upper ridge and thermal trough both shifting toward eastern OR/WA today focusing hottest, driest and most unstable conditions over eastern PSAs (E1-E5). A weak upper trough will take up residence over the region Friday and last into next week for cooler conditions. This feature will give a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, mainly eastern Oregon and possibly another batch about next Tuesday or Wednesday. Breezy conditions are expected in eastern Washington on Friday as marine push elevates west winds down the Cascades slopes and Col Basin.

LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL
New large fire potential will remain rather low through the next 7 days due mainly to higher fuel moistures. However, expect an uptick in IA activity across eastern Oregon Friday and Saturday due to some scattered lightning. Most of the lightning activity is likely to be in E4 and E5 where fuel levels remain in the moister green range.